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For all the parallels between social media and smoking, one notable difference

Smoking takes years off one’s life towards the end. Social & streaming media take years off right away.

The time spent down an algorithmically guided rabbit hole is time spent in a near-unconscious state.

Repeated habitually, those become years, shaved off one’s life, hour by hour.

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Real-World Crypto

Crypto: equity or commodity

[Cross-published to LinkedIn]

“Isn’t crypto a commodity like oil and gold? Why use terms from equity like market cap?” This is a question a friend asked last week. Here’s what I wrote to them – this is my take on the value model of crypto/blockchain.

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While there are tokens that more closely resemble commodities. this is not universal or even common in the crypto space. 

Bitcoin’s whole point is speculation. As Money, it is meant to be a store of value, medium of exchange and unit of account. Until it achieves the last one and goods are denominated in BTC, it will see speculation like every currency and commodity does – they are all Money in a sense. In that sense Bitcoin and memecoins and privacy coins could be commodities.

But there are also several projects building actual products, whether their customers are ‘real world’ companies or other crypto projects. These have real products, real revenue either in fiat or crypto itself, and most importantly a model for sharing that value created with their token holders. 

Today they are a small fraction of the overall landscape, and in this they are not that different from tech startups in general.

There is so much that is new with blockchain tech (or “crypto”):
– the concept of trustlessness, the technology that makes this possible
– the idea of value & wealth now being mediated by the same thing ie the token

This is also why opportunity abounds for those without scruples to present themselves as the arbiter of either convenience or quality or both. 

This is how we get tokens with no business model, tokens of product that are never intended to be built, poorly-designed tokens that implode (Terra) and black-box companies that collapse through malfeasance (FTX). 

However this also leaves a corresponding opportunity to locate signal among noise by identifying projects with solid fundamentals – in fact to build a model for fundamental analysis of this new paradigm of value creation. 

Those that succeed at this will likely create great wealth for themselves.
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