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Real-World Crypto

Cheap trades: centralised exchanges vs L2 DEXes

[cross-published to Linkedin]

Why are centralised exchange like Binance, Coinbase and… well, FTX – why are they so addictive?

Because many people trade. Often.

A big draw of centralised exchanges, or CEXes, is how cheap trades are – because nothing’s actually moving other than records on CEX accounting. ‘Transaction’ fees are 24×7 gravy for Binance/other exchanges.

Those same strategies or random trading on an Ethereum decentralised exchange, or DEX, would wipe out wallets balances in the first five minutes with gas.

I can imagine L2 Optimism/Arbitrum/Polygon pools on DEXes like Uniswap or 1inch would have fees low enough to support most strategies even if all trades were on-chain (well technically on a sidechain or a parachain).

But this requires that enough people bridge enough supply to these L2s.

And the issue with the enormous marketing capital and easy, slick web2 experiences on CEXes mean that there’s no significant capital available on these L2 DEXes.

CoinMarketCap Data for trading volumes at the top CEXes & DEXes – that too just spot. Binance is $13bn.  The largest DEX protocol, Uniswap v3, with all its cross-pair auto-routing, is just ~$900mn. dYdX is 3/4th that size, the next one is a fifth that.

But let’s face it. Would Joe/Jane Trader simply participate in stuff on the walled gardens of Binance Earn, or would he/she bridge their stables to an L2 and trade there?

The latter is highly, highly unlike as of today.

But bridging to L2s and trading on DEXes needs to be the norm, if we are going to move beyond the uncertainty that giants centralised exchanges have presented. Uncertainty about real money belonging to real people.

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Real-World Crypto

Responding to a token de-pegging

[Cross-published to LinkedIn]

FNDX manages its holdings conservatively & cautiously, avoiding nearly all of 2022’s crashes & fraud. Recently, there was an event with a portfolio token that FNDX monitored, analysed & responded to. 

The article on the FNDX website: “Responding to the WBTC de-peg in the wake of the FTX-Alameda Research collapse

Given the minefield that crypto is today, a conservative approach & clear policies for treasury management are table-stakes. 

You know exactly what tradeoffs you’re going to make and can act without hesitation. This is a great example.

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Real-World Crypto

NFTs and decentralised storage

[Cross-published to LinkedIn]

Here’s another reason why decentralised storage is important – FTX NFTs are now worthless. For you to truly own NFTs, their attributes & metadata need to live on-chain or on decentralised storage systems.

Storing and retrieving raw data directly on-chain, especially large payloads like images, is super expensive. That means data will increasingly reside on decentralised storage systems. And for their long term survival as a whole, they need to have sustainable token incentive mechanisms. The opportunity is enormous in size & value.

We don’t yet know which ones of Filecoin/IPFS, Arweave, Sia, Storj or any of several others everyday people will use. Those that figure it out & hold those tokens will stand to make significant wealth.

Categories
Real-World Crypto

[Cross-published to LinkedIn]

The well-known billionaire investor Bill Ackman tweeted last week about changing his mind about crypto projects as an investment opportunity for projects building real products.

Ackman is known for taking short positions against entities he is doubtful of, including, just recently, the Hong Kong dollar.

This makes his long view of crypto that much more notable.

Categories
Real-World Crypto

Crypto: equity or commodity

[Cross-published to LinkedIn]

“Isn’t crypto a commodity like oil and gold? Why use terms from equity like market cap?” This is a question a friend asked last week. Here’s what I wrote to them – this is my take on the value model of crypto/blockchain.

—-
While there are tokens that more closely resemble commodities. this is not universal or even common in the crypto space. 

Bitcoin’s whole point is speculation. As Money, it is meant to be a store of value, medium of exchange and unit of account. Until it achieves the last one and goods are denominated in BTC, it will see speculation like every currency and commodity does – they are all Money in a sense. In that sense Bitcoin and memecoins and privacy coins could be commodities.

But there are also several projects building actual products, whether their customers are ‘real world’ companies or other crypto projects. These have real products, real revenue either in fiat or crypto itself, and most importantly a model for sharing that value created with their token holders. 

Today they are a small fraction of the overall landscape, and in this they are not that different from tech startups in general.

There is so much that is new with blockchain tech (or “crypto”):
– the concept of trustlessness, the technology that makes this possible
– the idea of value & wealth now being mediated by the same thing ie the token

This is also why opportunity abounds for those without scruples to present themselves as the arbiter of either convenience or quality or both. 

This is how we get tokens with no business model, tokens of product that are never intended to be built, poorly-designed tokens that implode (Terra) and black-box companies that collapse through malfeasance (FTX). 

However this also leaves a corresponding opportunity to locate signal among noise by identifying projects with solid fundamentals – in fact to build a model for fundamental analysis of this new paradigm of value creation. 

Those that succeed at this will likely create great wealth for themselves.
—-

Categories
Data Custody Decentralisation and Neutrality Real-World Crypto

Democratisation is not the same as permissionless-ness

The Internet has democratised pretty much anything you can think of. That which is not yet democratised is spending increasing amounts every year to protect its monopoly, whether by force of law or perception.

Democratisation does not mean the end of concentration of power.

The biggest, most powerful companies are the world are tech giants. Whose products have democratised communication, access and opportunity. Those products have produced previously unimaginable social and economic value, and within a generation.

Yet they are, and have been, under investigation for abuse of power. They may have created platforms for creativity, connection, work and play for billions of us, but none of us have any control over these platforms.

A whole other class of powerful companies are financial giants. They have not even democratised access with and to their sophisticated products, unlike tech giants. We aren’t even aware of most of these products.

The excitement around cryptocurrencies, DeFi and DAOs and so much other decentralised tech is the promise of both democratisation and agency.

Some months ago a venture capitalist, new to crypto but with a lifetime’s experience of asking the right questions asked me incredulously how it was that anyone could create a new currency. And a new financial product. And a new organisation.

The key is that blockchains are permissionless by design. No one, fundamentally, needs approval to set up any of these above. The genie of trustless transactions let out of the bottle by the original Bitcoin whitepaper cannot be put back. That genie is capturing greater and greater amounts of economic value every year.

We are already seeing decentralised commerce. Decentralised financial products. Decentralised gaming. Decentralised communities. Decentralised governance. Decentralised creativity. And, of course, the original use case, decentralised currency.

Their success depends not on legislation. Or capital. Or location. Or race. It depends not even on technology, really. It is community, and, by extension, legitimacy. As the founder of the Ethereum project sums up an excellent blog post of his that I strongly recommend you read:

The concept of legitimacy (higher-order acceptance) is very powerful. Legitimacy appears in any context where there is coordination, and especially on the internet, coordination is everywhere.

There are different ways in which legitimacy comes to be: brute force, continuity, fairness, process, performance and participation are among the important ones.

Cryptocurrency is powerful because it lets us summon up large pools of capital by collective economic will, and these pools of capital are, at the beginning, not controlled by any person. Rather, these pools of capital are controlled directly by concepts of legitimacy.

Permissionless systems have lower barriers to entry. Leave alone creating competing systems from scratch, blockchains can and have been forked, preserving information and participation. And for the first time, the community of a project has the agency to act – collectivity – to do so. Because of this, a project must build and preserve legitimacy or risk irrelevance.

No matter how much a traditional tech giant may have democratised access, it is very much permissionned. In some sectors, for instance finance, that permission is regulation by the state.

As this genie of permissionless systems attracts more and more users, as those people move more and more economic activity there, backlash will follow. But both incumbents and regulators will find that permissionless systems, by their very nature, are difficult to rein in.

For tech and finance – and other – giants, the traditional rules of market capture don’t apply. For instance it is difficult for a ride sharing app company to compete for a driver’s loyalty with cashbacks or a reduced commission against a decentralised version that gives the driver actual agency over the organisation itself, that not just allows or encourages collective action, but requires it, cannot function effectively without it.

For regulators, traditional models of regulation may not apply. To begin with, permissionless entities are borderless. They are not just resistant to regulation or opposed to regulation, they transcend regulation. For instance A capital markets regulator in a country may ban participation in liquidity pools, but they will continue regardless. Regulators’ only option, then, is to block the gates to the decentralised world itself, that is, the conversion of fiat versions of value – currency – to decentralised versions of value – tokens. If a decentralised organisation gives someone enough agency, though, they will find ways to access membership of that decentralised organisation. The organisation does not need anyone’s permission to exist, to function, to create value for its members – why should I need permission, goes the thinking.

At the conclusion of this, I must stress that this is not a value judgement. This is not meant to unquestioningly assert the superiority of permissionless systems. It is a thinking-through of what permissionless really means. And, specifically, that it is different from democratisation in the fundamental aspect of distribution of control. It is a pointing-out of why the spread of permissionless systems is likely inevitable, inexorable.

Categories
Data Custody Real-World Crypto

When you own bitcoin but defeat the purpose of owning bitcoin

Paypal, Venmo and Square opened up buying and selling cryptocurrency in their apps in the last year, at least to customers in the USA.

Recently, the Canadian investing service Wealthsimple announced the ability to “buy and sell cryptocurrencies instantly”, starting with a list of about a dozen such tokens.

The benefit of such widely used services offering easy access to cryptocurrencies is clear: anyone who has been curious about bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies can now ‘buy’ them. They can experience dizzying gains and crushing losses. It’s informative and educative. And it goes beyond crypto: more people than ever can experience how this volatile an asset behaves.

At the same time, the highly abstracted nature of these experiences means that people may not understand what makes these tokens important beyond volatile curiosities. Particularly the idea of total ownership of your tokens without a mediating party – like these apps.

With Venmo, Paypal and Wealthsimple you don’t actually own bitcoin or any cryptocurrency. There’s no indication that Paypal, say, buys a certain amount of bitcoin on some exchange and holds it on your behalf. At most, it holds some bitcoin – it its name – and when you ‘buy’ bitcoin within the app for US dollars, it earmarks, in software, some of that bitcoin against your account.

No wonder none of these will let you send your bitcoin (or crypto) to another one of your own wallets. You can only sell ‘your’ bitcoin back to them (Venmo, Wealthsimple faqs).

That goes against the very basic idea of bitcoin, which was that you shouldn’t have to rely on third parties like banks to hold your money for you. There’s a high risk that ordinary customers of these apps will view the highly abstracted, processed bitcoin (and other crypto) as mere trinkets, toys. Venmo encourages you to buy bitcoin so your friends can get a notification about it:

At least Square’s Cash app gives you an option to send your holdings to an external wallet.

Beyond this, people hold cryptocurrency at the very exchanges where they buy it from, in exchange for their local currencies.

Here the situation is somewhat less bad. You do have a bitcoin wallet, or several other wallets for different cryptocurrencies: you can deposit from an outside wallet to this one. You can send tokens from this wallet to an outside one.

But your ability to operate this wallet is controlled entirely by the exchange. If it decides you have violated its terms of use, or if the exchange is attacked, or there’s a technical problem that causes it to lose your credentials, you will no longer be able to access your tokens.

Tens of millions of people – more likely hundreds of millions – hold such ‘hot’ wallets at exchanges. They all trade control for convenience.

Only a small fraction of the total number of people who have bought bitcoin or cryptocurrency tokens hold them in wallets that they truly control, in what are termed ‘non-custodial’ wallets, meaning no one holds your tokens in custody other than you yourself.

Now while you have total and exclusive control, you also bear sole responsibility for keeping your access keys and recovery passphrase safe. A significant fraction of the bitcoins that have ever been mined have been just lost because people forgot or lost what they needed to access them.

Today mediating companies like PayPal and exchanges like, say, India’s CoinDCX or the USA Coinbase, far outspend non-custodial wallets on acquiring new customers.

I think for the decentralised economy to cross any sort of realistic threshold of relevance, vastly more people need to experience holding their own tokens in non-custodial wallets. That’s when they’ll get a sense of what decentralised tokens, decentralised money means.

(ends)

Categories
Real-World Crypto

In the press: The future of the Indian crypto market is independent of regulation

An article today quotes me:

Rahul Gaitonde, an Indian cryptocurrency investor and investment advisor, told Forkast.News:

“The Indian tech scene is seeing investment from the West across an increasing number of sectors — including in cryptocurrency companies… [t]here’s a growing base of world-class crypto projects being created in India that are inherently global in nature”

I think this is an important point. No matter how permissive or restrictive the crypto regulation in India ends up being, expect growing venture investment in the crypto space in India.

The rest of the article is worth reading.

Categories
Real-World Crypto

Iran creates forex out of energy with crypto

Developments in Iran:

The Central Bank of Iran has declared that licensed banks and moneychangers in the country can use cryptocurrency that has been mined by officially sanctioned miners to pay for imports, according to a report from the Financial Tribune.

– “Iran Authorizes Use Of Officially Mined Cryptocurrency For Import Payments

Iran is creating forex (a scarce resource) out of energy (an abundant one).

Oil exporting countries usually have no problems with forex – they can choose to get paid in dollars or euros. But Iran has diminishing leverage geopolitically. Large importers like India and China now pay for Iran’s oil imports in their own currencies (“India to pay in rupees for Iranian oil” and “China buying oil from Iran with yuan“) [1]

So Iran can’t manufacture dollars or euro, but it can manufacture bitcoin and other crypto. As long as exporters from other countries accept it, this is a sustainable way for it to participate in global trade.

I am just surprised it took so long. And I wonder how long before the US moves to plug this gap too.


[1] If I remember correctly this was also a condition the US imposed in 2018 on other countries dealing with Iran to be exempt from its sanctions, although that window was temporary.


(Featured Image Photo Credit: Robin Sommer/Unsplash)

Categories
Real-World Crypto RG.org Writing

Crypto dot rahulgaitonde dot org

The Whatsapp group I started on bitcoin, cryptocurrency and decentralised finance now has over 200 subscribers across 14 countries.

Now, all of the past posts from the group are now available at Crypto.RahulGaitonde.Org. I will continue to add new posts here as they are published on the Whatsapp group.

Unlike the group, I have left comments open here – if there are ever discussions on posts, WordPress has moderation tools; Whatsapp does not.