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Audience as Capital Data Custody Decentralisation and Neutrality Discovery and Curation Making Money Online Privacy and Anonymity Real-World Crypto RG.org The Dark Forest of the Internet The Next Computer Wellness when Always-On

300

7th October marks three hundred days since I began writing daily on this website.

While I have written on and off on the site from late 2002, this is the longest publishing streak the site has had. The streak began in December 2019 as something I wanted to do for myself at a time I felt low. It has now become a habit. If I remember correctly, Seth Godin had said on Tim Ferriss’ podcast that at some point after he started writing regularly on his blog, his thinking changed from ‘should I write tomorrow?’ to ‘what should I write about tomorrow?’.

I’ve gotten somewhat comfortable with drafting, writing and scheduling posts for the week ahead. Now I plan to build a healthy information consumption habit. My reading is too scattered, both in subject and in time. It doesn’t leave me with enough time to absorb things and think them through. I plan to trim my reading sources and structure my week so there are distinct chunks for reading, thinking and writing.

Community
This site has always explored questions about how you and I deal with technology in our lives. Those questions are so much more important in 2020 than they were eighteen years ago. My framework to understand this are the Five Megatrends and Five Big Questions.

Ultimately I’d love for the readers of this site to be a community that discusses and helps each other navigate opportunities that tech brings to our lives, and the challenges we face to our mental and physical health and to our relationships: by being conscious that tech serves us instead of us serving tech, or serving those that control tech. About Living Well in the Always-On.

Interested in being an early community member? Get in touch: Email or Twitter.

(Featured image photo credit: Jeff Golenski)

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Decentralisation and Neutrality Discovery and Curation Making Money Online

Play Store and Fair Play

Google has recently begun enforcing its policy about using Google Play’s in-app billing for apps that sell virtual goods. The problem is the 30% cut that Google, like Apple, charges on such transactions.

This Economic Times article has reactions from some app makers in India, including references to new-age colonialism via a foreign player imposing lagaan.

In my view, Google’s policies on which goods need to use in-app billing and which don’t is pretty clear. It’s also not different from Apple’s App Store policies, which have always been enforced strictly. It only applies to digital goods (with some exceptions even there), so statements like this don’t hold water:

“How can a company survive after paying 30% Google tax and Apple tax… Most businesses don’t have such margins. If enforced, this will spell an end to the startup dreams of a lot of Indian entrepreneurs.”

But there are new restrictions on communicating the existence of alternative payment methods, similar to Apple’s. I think these are onerous:

Apps other than those described in 2(b) may not lead users to a payment method other than Google Play’s billing system. This prohibition includes, but is not limited to, leading users to other payment methods via:

  • An app’s listing in Google Play;
  • In-app promotions related to purchasable content;
  • In-app webviews, buttons, links, messaging, advertisements or other calls to action; and
  • In-app user interface flows, including account creation or sign-up flows, that lead users from an app to a payment method other than Google Play’s billing system as part of those flows.

Because Apple enforces this policy, you can see the difference in Netflix’s signup instructions on iOS and Android. Once Google’s new policy comes into effect, I expect these to look similar:

What if the Play Store billing was completely optional in India, but a much better experience than any other method? The opportunity cost is low: an estimate of Google’s Play Store revenue in India for this year so far is USD 50 million. Its global 2nd quarter revenue was over USD 38 billion. The India business is a drop in terms of revenue, but led to 17 billion downloads.

In other words, the question Google should discuss is when app makers start designing workarounds for your policy, do you start plugging loopholes, putting you at odds with app makers, or so you change your policy, perhaps radically, so app makers welcome it?

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Data Custody Decentralisation and Neutrality

Cloudflare and the Internet Archive Cache

Cloudflare is one of my favourite Internet companies. They’ve made previously-enterprise-level services like CDN, denial-of-service protection and HTTPS available to every website owner. They also run the excellent 1.1.1.1 DNS resolution service, which I use on my pi-hole adblocker. I am a Cloudflare customer for this website, and Cloudflare is part of my US stock portfolio as of this writing.

I recently learnt that the Internet Archive and Cloudflare announced an elegant partnership: The Internet Archive operates one of the Internet’s most precious artefacts, the Wayback Machine, which has archived billions of pages from the web’s earliest days (see this website’s pages on the W.M.). It will now begin to also archive pages of Cloudflare customer website. Under the partnership, if a Cloudflare customers website is unavailable for any reason, such as problems with the web host, the Wayback Machine will kick in and serve archived copies of that page instead.

Turning it on on my Cloudflare dashboard only required toggling a switch:

It’s elegant because each party operates what it does best. Cloudflare runs a site’s DNS anyway, and can determine when a site is down. The Wayback Machine archives web pages anyway; it now serves some of them repurposed as cached pages. I imagine these pages are stored differently so as to be retrievable quickly.

Google has long offered cached versions of pages on its search result pages:

But this partnership is baked into the web – if there’s a problem with a site, pages will be served by the Wayback Machine regardless of whether they were accessed via Google Search or were linked to from another website or were sent via a chat or email. It just works.

Featured image photo credit: Jon Hieb/Unsplash

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Data Custody Decentralisation and Neutrality Making Money Online Personal Finance The Next Computer Wellness when Always-On

My portfolio of US stocks for the post-pandemic world

The New York Times:

The coronavirus pandemic has accelerated trends that were building for years by forcing large swaths of the population to work from home and shop online. And many obscure companies are taking off, driven by investors who expect them to flourish in an economy whose future arrived ahead of schedule.

“When it comes to remote work in particular, the past 10 weeks have seen more changes than we’ve seen in the previous 20 years”

Erik Brynjolfsson

Erik Brynjofsson co-wrote the seminal The Second Machine Age in 2014 – he is a keen observer of this trend.

Surveys conducted by Mr. Brynjolfsson and economists at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology found that the share of Americans working from home jumped to about 50 percent this year, from around 15 percent before the pandemic.

The article describes companies whose stocks have risen much faster than the overall tech-dominated NASDAQ index:

Fastly is up more than 310 percent this year. Zscaler is up over 180 percent. Chegg and Veeva are up 75 percent and 90 percent. In a tech universe dominated by Apple, Amazon, Microsoft and Google, the share prices of little companies you’ve probably never heard of are soaring… Zoom — the suddenly ubiquitous video conferencing service — has been an investor darling, up close to 500 percent this year as workplaces shut down. Peloton, the home video cycling company, is up almost 200 percent amid widespread gym closures… [Docusign’s] shares are up 166 percent this year.

My own US stock portfolio are based on a similar thesis, and have seen similar performances this year. My qualifying criteria for companies are the following (as with things like this they are perennially a work in progress):

  1. B2B companies enabling
    ~ Remote working
    ~ At-home lifestyle
    ~ Small business commerce
    ~ Internet infrastructure
  2. Dominant in one of above categories
  3. Low political risk domestic (US) and international
  4. Resilient during the March-April 2020 crash
  5. A business I understand

Some companies in my portfolio:

A. Companies other than ones mentioned in the article:
~ Atlassian
~ Cloudflare
~ Twilio
~ Nvidia
~ Wix

B. Companies also mentioned in the NYT article:
~ Shopify
~ Docusign
~ Peloton
~ Fastly

C. Companies that are Big Tech but fall within my thesis
~ Amazon (because of AWS)
~ Microsoft (Office, Teams, Github, Azure)
~ Apple (iPad, Macbooks)


Featured image photo credit: Rohit Tandon/Unsplash.

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Data Custody Decentralisation and Neutrality Privacy and Anonymity

Wishlist: iOS 15 and privacy

Ars Technica has a succinct overview of the many privacy-oriented features in the recently-released iOS 14.

Regardless of whether you are actively concerned about privacy or are in the ‘but I like my ads’ camp, it’s worth reading about the actions of a company that has a very clear view on this issue.

As with iOS 13 in 2019, this year’s release also has prominent notices in its built-in apps about Apple’s stance on privacy.

There have been rumours about Apple launching its own search engine in the next iOS. The evidence seems to be how iOS 14 already retrieves information that is displayed in Spotlight searches – that it seems to be using Apple’s own crawlers.

While this would be welcome, I’d like Apple to

  1. Roll its own privacy-centric encrypted DNS service built into the next iOS.
  2. Allow device-wide traffic routing via the Tor network.Taking this even further, I’d like it to
  3. Offer a full-fledged VPN as part of its Apple One subscription bundle

Combined with iOS’ own privacy features, this’d give those that wanted and cared about privacy to get it, even at a price.

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Data Custody Decentralisation and Neutrality Discovery and Curation Privacy and Anonymity The Dark Forest of the Internet Wellness when Always-On

Alternate realities – Part 3

(Part 2)

8/ And its why real-world consequences of online behaviour, such as the people jailed for merely like-ing a Facebook post critical of politicians, is distressing. As George on Seinfeld cried, World Are Colliding.

9/ All of this works both ways. Communities of fringe loonies will use the same tools to block you from injecting reason into their online dialogue. And when reporting online harassment results in a real-world arrest we are gladdened.

This is a plot point in several movies or books that involve virtual worlds. They are never fully independent of the physical world, and their interaction with the physical isn’t always sanguine. It’s often the case in the real real world. People have been jailed for writing their mind, for sharing videos in jest, even simply liking Facebook posts – usually pricking the fragile ego of a person in power. Mere anonymity is often not enough. Even when you’re all wearing masks, your virtual town square can be invaded by the real-world Basij.

However benevolent and forward-looking the authorities online may be, they’ll clash with – and usually lose against – authorities in the real world. Just look at Twitter’s transparency report regarding data requests from governments. According to themselves, they complied with four out of every ten such requests. Facebook complied with 3 out of every 4 requests, and nearly 90% of requests from the US and the UK.

10/ In any case, this kaleidoscope theory accommodates more of what we are seeing happening than the more common polarisation theory. It posits that polarisation is a special case of the sharding of reality.

Most reporting frames the problem as one of polarisation – like a dumbbell, there is a concentration of people around two diametrically opposite viewpoints.

This is not new: most of the US’ 20th century relationship with the world outside through the lens of communism versus capitalism, never mind those that didn’t care, didn’t matter, were explicitly non-aligned, or had widely varying interpretations of each economic system. It has resulted in a with-us-or-against-us mindset. If you weren’t a committed communist, you were a capitalist pig. If you weren’t for the Vietnam war, you had to be against it – and therefore unpatrioric. Ditto with the 21st century Iraq occupation. Then it was Christianity versus Islam. Today the country’s much more insular, so it’s supposed to be Democrat versus Republican.

In India you’re either a secular, used as a pejorative term, or a mindless devotee of the Hindu right, never mind what secularism was supposed to mean or the many schools of Hinduism. The definitions of each now form narrow edges meant to cleave.

But online, while the war of polar opposites is fomented and waged, myriad cultures form, thrive and die, each with their own biases and rivalries. For the first time they can exist freely and openly without having to pick sides in someone else’s battle. This freedom is important – so far only the privileged have been able to declare themselves against ‘the world’. Now any group that feels marginalised in real life can do so.

11/ Either way, we’d entered this age of infinite realities sometime in the 2010s. The diminishing of the physical space this year marks an inflection point, when a critical mass of us begins defecting into our online realities and being shaped by their cultures.

The pandemic has cause the diminishing of our real world public spaces, making online ones all that much more important. New types of closed communities hog attention – Houseparty, Clubhouse – and several other similar apps – but the other inevitable shift will be to true public spaces. Today there is little other than Twitter.

It’s going to be fantastic to look back in ten years’ time at the movement of people’s social lives to such online worlds – all run by private entities. In a decade, 2020 is going to seem as quaint as the web of twenty five years go – Lycos, DMOZ, Photobucket, Kozmo – seems today.


End note: The other development we haven’t explored in this series is the increasing popularity of game-oriented virtual worlds like Animal Crossing and Minecraft. They fall somewhere between closed communities like groups & subreddits on the one hand and town squares like Twitter. World-building is more deliberate, more visual, more explicit. But they also provide the same sort of open endedness of Twitter and the creation of communities. In fact, as we have seen, of entire economies.

(end)

Featured image photo credit: William Álvarez/Unsplash

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Decentralisation and Neutrality Discovery and Curation Privacy and Anonymity The Dark Forest of the Internet Wellness when Always-On

Alternate realities – Part 2

(Part 1)

5/ The vastness of Twitter is what gives this the scope of a whole reality. A Facebook or Slack group or email list seems closed in comparison, a direct digital analogy of a forum or group meeting. Twitter seems like whole new worlds.

6/ Imagining hundreds of such alternative realities is heartening. This was already true – it’s what we speak of when we speak of VC Twitter, Crypto Twitter, Infosec Twitter. We are now seeing this more evenly distributed.

Twitter is an extraordinary phenomenon, the closest we have to an internet within the Internet. It’s smaller than other social networks, a fraction of Facebook’s size, but its easy publish-subscribe nature gives it a limitless feel that no other comes close to. Twitter’s natural velocity is also faster than, say, Facebook or Instagram. It’s not quite a messaging app, but you don’t see the equivalent of tweet-storms on other networks.

This openness and quickness is a big contributor to multiple subcultures coexisting on the same fabric, and you can plug yourself into any number of them. In its early days Twitter described itself as a giant world-wide town square. It still remains that, and because it’s virtual, you can participate in many simultaneous gatherings in that square, ambiently aware of innumerable such conversations around you. It’s a testament to Twitter’s versatility that it can feel like a vast open space and an echo chamber at the same time.

7/ I think that’s why there’s such pressure on Twitter from its most ardent users for tools to combat trolls and abuse. It’s to keep out those who impinge on their reality.

Social media gets flak for encouraging escape for the real world. This is in fact the Internet’s biggest benefit. Usenet, a precursor of bulletin boards, was among the Internet’s earliest use-cases. When you participated in different usenet groups with their own argot, inside jokes and community cultures, you plugged yourself into alternative realities. The more open the group the faster it grows and at some point generates its own culture. But that same openness leaves it open to interference from what it considers outsiders. It’s easier online than in real life to hijack discussions, brigade entire threads, disrupt a whole group.

How do groups counter this? Groups have moderators, empowered in some manner to enforce conduct that’s been agreed upon. Disrupters can be banned, words and topics can censored, threads can be locked, accounts can be limited to posting only a certain number of messages every hour. With active moderation, the work required to consistently disrupt a group often dwarfs the hoped-for benefit. The group fights off the infection and lives another day. This is how Reddit works.

But Twitter isn’t a group. Consequently, there are no moderators but Twitter itself. This leaves Twitter uniquely vulnerable to harassment, abuse, hate speech, stalking. Because people can retweet with a single tap, the effects of the already devastating act of doxxing – publishing someone’s real-life details like house address, person phone number, children’s names – are magnified. The effects of these are a topic by themselves. But consider the context in which we’re discussing this:

Twitter’s a place where people can be their own selves in an open environment – this combination is what makes it an alternative world. If this world has intruders like above, it’s the equivalent of being accosted by those people in a cafe or a park bench or walking down the street. Because you’re not in a digital bar, there are no bouncers to throw the offending party out. It’s a public space, and police are – until recently – absent.

(Part 3)

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Decentralisation and Neutrality Privacy and Anonymity

Pi-hole

We’ve discussed home-network-wide ad-blocking a few times before. Every few weeks I’ll remember that I have have had a Raspberry Pi attached with twine to my home router, running pi-hole silently, for a few years now. I’ll login to the web interface and dwell on how well it does the one job it was created for. This is one such time.

It tells me that over the last 24 hours, a typical day, one in every seven requests was to an ad network or tracker. And that the numbers really add up.

I also see that it replies to 16% of queries from its cache, and a little over 8% are queries from itself – the pi also does some file syncing for me. That means 14 + 16 + 8 = over 38% of queries don’t need to be resolved by the public internet. It’s a rough measure of how much more efficient the Internet feels at home.

Finally, it reminds me just how many devices we have at home that connect to the internet. Two phones, two iPads, a PC and at least one Mac, the Pi itself. That just ten years ago most of us had no tablet and used either a dumbphone or a smartphone that had no meaningful wireless syncing. Everything was on one laptop we carried around everywhere. That today we are firmly in a multi-device world.

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Data Custody Decentralisation and Neutrality Privacy and Anonymity The Next Computer Wellness when Always-On

The New Middle – Part 2

(Part 1)

Take privacy. There is a near-critical mass of people aware and concerned about how much data faceless companies have about them without their informed consent and how disparate data sets may be combined to manipulate their choices. But many of them aren’t aware of browser-based ad-blockers, their capabilities, how to install and update them. Network-wide ad-blockers such as pi-hole are simply beyond them.

This will change. Privacy-consciousness is going to be an attractive positioning for a business to take in the near future, because the New Middle is searching for them. The email service Protonmail, the browser Brave, the password manager 1Password, the two-factor authentication service Authy (now part of Twilio), the self-hosted personal information manager Nextcloud – these are all the vanguard for well-designed privacy-centric software but I don’t think they have yet marketed to the New Middle, which still reads, watches and listens to the same things the Mainstream does. Apple is the lone company I see having already staked out an unshakeable positioning here. We have recently discussed Mozilla’s opportunity to own this market as well. There is an opportunity for hardware too – imagine a router with firmware that bundles pi-hole, that does not need OpenWRT to be user-installed (side note: Apple’s hardware is already privacy-conscious).

All this is still just one area – privacy. Think about similar New Middle companies in the other areas we listed above. Pervasive anonymity as a service, anonymous-only social network and communities. Attention preservation for you and your kids. ISPs and communications providers publicly committed to net neutrality. Since there are overlaps between many of these, companies can and will compete and win the New Middle in more than one of these areas. Lastly, for large-scale reach, they will need to raise capital. Many of these will do so via the public market. They’ll make for attractive investment opportunities.

(ends)

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Data Custody Decentralisation and Neutrality Privacy and Anonymity Wellness when Always-On

The New Middle – Part 1

The New Middle is a emerging class of people who are beginning to care about the issues in technology we frequently discuss here on the site.

Until recently, when it came to privacy, anonymity, attention fatigue, data custody, net neutrality, intellectual property and patents, even ergonomics and sustainable computing, people either used to be part of The Mainstream or used to be nerds that worked in the technology industry. There were a few outliers for sure, but no overlap.

The Mainstream neither cared for nor understood the implications of such issues on themselves, their community, their society. This indifference would shock, even offend, the nerds. The nerds on their part understood at least some of these as a result of their education. Some of them built software, hardware, service as part of their day job that involved these issues. Consequently, they cared passionately enough to make deliberate choices that would seem very odd to the Mainstream.

As technology in all its forms across all domains has become part of everyday life, over the past twenty years it has gotten extensive coverage in the national press, in print, TV and for the recent past with Netflix and such services, online. The coverage has shifted from being effusive about the transformative possibilities of new technology – “your life will never be the same after you buy a personal computer!” – to a more sober take on the effects on their ill-effects on our wellness and safety.

That has created a vastly more widespread awareness among the Mainstream. It’s affected a sizeable minority of them to think and care enough about how technology affects them, their kids, their friends that they’ve begun looking for ways to gain some control. They are no longer the Mainstream. They are the New Middle.

The New Middle is searching for tools and means to exercise this control at their level of technical competence but are underserved because they haven’t existed as an identifiable segment before.

(Part 2 – an example)