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The St. Gallen Essay

I sent in an essay for the St. Gallen “Wings of Excellence” Award (part of the annual St. Gallen Symposium.) Well, the essay didn’t make it to the final 200 – so that leaves it open for me to publish it here!

The Fire Within
The Ecological Origins of Terrorism

Rahul Gaitonde
The Indian Institute of Management Kozhikode
rahul.gaitonde@gmail.com

Abstract

Few contemporary issues are as high in the public consciousness as, to borrow George Bush’s coinage, the War on Terror. Across the globe, nations are engaged in fighting terrorism politically, socially, economically. Yet, six years into the War, we do not have any compelling evidence to suggest we are winning it, or are even close. Have we truly struck at the roots of Terror? More fundamentally, have we even fully understood Terror? Indeed, today’s multi-fronted battles merely address the symptom, not the cause. The cause, more often than not, is ecological.

“Rogue” states, ruled by despots or wracked by conflict today have some of the richest concentrations of natural resources; but deadly concoctions of poor, often unsustainable policy decisions, autocratic control, unequal distribution of existing resources, eventually spill into social and political unrest. Is it any surprise, that terrorists the world over see themselves as victims of terror?

This essay delves into the minds of three characters at the center of three dramatically different manifestations of ecological terror. As we live their cause, their motivations, their compulsions, we begin to realize the sheer scale of what we are up against.

[Begins]

In the pitch darkness, the only sound was the constant trill of the crickets in the thick brush. In the stillness, Ganesh Uieke (1) turned and shone his tiny torch on his “troops” – eight hundred Naxals, armed to the teeth. Satisfied, he turned again, and glanced at his watch. In fifteen minutes he’d quietly signal the start of what would be a deadly twin attack on the Government-run Errabore relief camp, thought to be harboring anti-Naxal elements, and a paramilitary camp some distance away, deep in the Bastar forests in the central Indian state of Chhattisgarh.

Uieke had done this before – he’d stopped keeping count a dozen years ago. Having left spent the last three decades of his life in Bastar, he’d seen the Naxal movement evolve from a seven-year-old tribal uprising with origins in neighboring West Bengal, to a 55000-strong army that controlled massive tracts of land across a wide swathe of Indian territory, with the ultimate ambition of establishing a Maoist Indian state.

Now he allowed himself a moment of reminiscence. The Naxal struggle had been born in the tiny West Bengal village of Naxalbari in 1967; scores of landless laborers had risen as one against the tyranny of local landlords, who for centuries controlled the most important natural resource the region had – agricultural land. The uprising inspired similar movements across central and eastern India. It captured the imagination of a generation of middle-class intellectuals and students like him– easy in those tempestuous, turbulent years in young India’s history. People took to arms to stake their claim to their land, their rivers, their forests, their grasslands, their wildlife, the Maoist Naxal philosophy an attractive dream. Uieke remembered, although vaguely, when the Government had established massive mines to extract iron ore from his region’s mineral-rich countryside. He recalled having to move home to a far smaller one; his father – once a trader of the local tendu patta (leaves used to wrap bidi cigarettes) – being employed by the mines, working longer hours, and yet poorer than he was before the mines were set up. As a student in college, he learnt how the Government earned tens of millions of rupees from the ore in the mines, and seethed at how little his people got out of it. It was, after all, their land. The mines had reduced them to refugees in their own land, and given them nothing at all in return. A chance encounter with a local Naxal gathering saw him plunge headlong into the movement, fighting for their rights, their land.

Uieke smiled proudly at the memories of his days as a firebrand local Naxal commander. But then he frowned, suddenly aware that the Naxal movement of today was nothing like its origins. He was in a position of immense power today, his men and women were well armed, his operations well funded, but he couldn’t deny that there was no Cause left anymore. Why did the mainstream media keep referring to them as “terrorists”? Didn’t they understand why they’d taken up arms against the state? But then didn’t the Naxals frequently recruit local bandits for their bombing and looting operations? Their battles with Selwa Judum, the Government-sponsored anti-Naxal villagers’ movement, had spiraled into an all-out gang war. Did it have anything to do with the people anymore? Was it true – had what started at a struggle for rights to the wealth of their native lands degenerated into a senseless terrorist movement?

He glanced at his watch again. It was time. For another glorious attack on a symbol of the Indian State’s tyranny? Or just another senseless act of destruction? Never had such thoughts bothered Uieke before; now his mind was a jumble of conflicting thoughts – pride and guilt, courage and shame, rage and confusion. But the attack had to go through. He pulled out his automatic pistol, and fired a shot in the air. As one, the eight hundred terrorists, screaming, descended on the relief camp a few hundred meters ahead. Carnage was imminent.

25 killed in Naxal attack in Chhattisgarh (2)
July 17, 2006 11:45 IST
At least 25 people were killed and 80 injured, about 32 of them seriously, while 250 people were missing following an attack by some 800 armed Naxalites in Dantewada district on Monday, police said.
The Maoists brutally killed the villagers, and 20 of them were hacked to death with sharp weapons, while three were charred to death and two were shot dead by the Naxalites at Errabore relief camp, 550 km from the state capital, police and official sources told PTI over phone from Konta.

(1) Ganesh Uieke is secretary of the West Bastar Divisional Committee of the Communist Party of India (Maoist). He was interviewed by The Economist for its August 17th 2006 print edition. While the incident is true, the narrative is fictional.

(2) Report from Rediff.com, 17th July 2006, http://www.rediff.com/news/2006/jul/17naxal.htm.
****
Rukminibai’s eyes widened in horror as the full import of the slumlord’s words hit her. “What do you mean it’s sold to someone else?! It’s my land! I bought it from you!”

The slumlord simply smiled. His gold canine made the smile look extremely menacing, and an involuntary shudder went through Rukminibai’s frail frame. Her hut, along with hundreds others in the Mumbai slum of Ambujwadi had been demolished by the Bombay Municipal Corporation in a recent demolition drive, until a leading national politician had vetoed the drive. As Rukminibai had reached the site of what had once been her “home”, she had found someone else re-building a hut there, and local strongmen had chased her away. In sheer distress, she’d rushed to Kirti’s – the all-powerful local slumlord’s place, where she was told the land had been sold.

Kirti – or Dada, elder brother, as he was known in the slum – looked at the woman with a mixture of pity and disgust. He’d spent decades dealing with cases like these. Every slum demotion brought dozens, often hundreds of Rukminibais to his door. That was the way the parallel rule in the slum worked. An unholy nexus of slumlord, mafia, politician and builder had been spawned because of the total mismanagement of the most important natural resource in Bombay – land. The Urban Land Rent (Ceiling) Act, an archaic post-World War II law to prevent landlords from fleecing returning war veterans was still in force today – the only major city in the world to have not repealed it. The law created an all-powerful tenants lobby, which paid abysmally low rents for apartments in some of Bombay’s most valuable areas, and were almost impossible for the landlord to evict, generation after generation. This act, coupled with a severely limited Floor Space Index – which prescribed the quantum of living space a builder could construct per area of land – ensured an artificial scarcity of land on the island metropolis. At the same time, acres upon acres of Government land were poorly protected, and easy to encroach on. It was as easy as it could get – goons simply moved in, as Kirti had done in the early 1980s, claimed the land as theirs, paid off the local police for looking the other way, and auctioned plots measuring few square meters to migrants. Demand was tremendous – India’s stagnant village economy forced thousands of young men from around the country to migrate to Bombay in search of a job, and money to remit home. Indeed, in India’s hinterland, legends were built around Bombay, the Mayanagari – the City of Dreams.

Kirti had been quick to spot an opportunity in this deadly ecosystem. He’d been slumlord for close to two decades now, and wielded incredible power. There were others like Kirti all over Bombay, ecological terrorists plundering every spare, precious acre of land. Sustaining this ecosystem were archaic legislation, a conniving, spineless political class, a rapacious clan of builders, and a poorly paid police force, eager to make a buck wherever possible. This nexus was how slum demolitions actually helped the slumlord. He knew that there was no real political will to do away with slums – the slum-dwellers’ votes were simply too important. So a demolition drive would be announced with great fanfare, and sure enough, news-starved television crews would assemble in the blink of an eye to report the Municipal Corporation’s bulldozers raze part of the shanties. For Kirti, the 2004 demolitions (3) had been an opportunity for free publicity. These demolitions had also brought social activists out in droves, all indignant, all of a sudden concerned about the plight of those displaced – “Where will they go” being their perennial refrain. The next act in this oft-played out drama was the same politician who announced the drive retracting it, promising to make arrangements for rehabilitation before resuming the drive. “They will be driven out of this fair city!” the politician had thundered, thus cementing his popularity with the middle and upper class too. After the bulldozers had been removed, television crews driven away, Kirti’s men had gone about their business quietly, efficiently. Auctions had been organized again, this time commanding a higher price than before.

The cold-blooded Kirti smiled, again. “Your land? That’s a joke! Lady, that land doesn’t even belong to me! You aren’t even in the picture! There’s no deed, no title, no ownership. You only live there as long as you can pay what Kirti demands. And someone is willing to pay more for ‘your’ land. They don’t call it life on the Razor’s Edge for nothing!” He paused, turned and gestured “Take her away. Waste of time!”

(3) Ambujwadi, on Bombay’s (Mumbai’s) coast, spans 23 acres of land belonging to the district Collector (a high-ranking bureaucrat). The land lies in the sensitive Coastal Regulatory Zone, which are ecologically vulnerable areas.

****

“Two trillion dollars!” the President (4) looked up from the sheaf of papers in his hand, across the table at the Oval Office. “That’s the cost of Big Oil, eh?”

The Vice President fidgeted in his chair, aware that the President had become increasingly jittery about the cost of the Iraq war. A December 2006 paper by Joseph Stiglitz had pegged the eventual cost of the war at this astronomical figure. The 2001 Nobel laureate could influence public opinion like few others could – which meant the report could do some serious damage to the Administration’s already shaky reputation, and had wider implications for the campaign leading up to the next Presidential elections. But this was now a personal war for the Vice President. Having egged the President to commit fantastic sums of money and hundreds of thousands of troops to Iraq, this was a war he dearly wanted to win. It would be his legacy. He’d be known as the man whose drive led America to establish its hegemony in West Asia. Far more importantly, it would give America’s oil giants – corporations in which he held significant stakes – direct access to virtually infinite petroleum reserves in the country. It was a compelling, almost intoxicating vision – which meant he simply could not afford to have the President vacillate on this matter. Black gold, the ancients called it – possibly the most valuable natural resource on the planet.

“Mr. President, we’ve been over this before,” he cleared his throat and began, “Iraq, as of 2007, has a hundred and twelve billion barrels of proven oil reserves – and who knows how much more there is lying beneath the desert. The US Department of Energy has estimated that Iraqi reserves could possibly total over 400 billion barrels. Even at conservative estimates of fifty five dollars a barrel, the proven reserves are worth well over six trillion dollars. I’d like to see another investment that’ll produce guaranteed three hundred percent returns!”

“I’m not so sure now about a bunch of other things,” the President replied, “our depleted uranium waste from the war – that’s still lying all over the place. Sure, those cluster bombs helped, but what about this mess?” The man was not done yet. “And what’s this report about Iraqis and our men suffering from what looks suspiciously like the Gulf War Syndrome? Look.” and he passed a sheet to the Vice President.

“…headache and listlessness, cough and asthma, loss of weight due to diarrhea.” the Vice President read. It didn’t make for very good reading, that was true. And he didn’t have much to refute that. He’d have to try a different track.

“Mr. President, we’re paying money today to the Saudis – huge amounts – for oil. And the Lord knows how much is siphoned off to the other side in our War on Terror. Once we’re through with this war, we’ll have cut off that channel completely. Besides,” he let his voice drop, “I’ve… we’ve already made deals with our corporations. The auctions have begun. The campaign money’s already started flowing. There’s no looking back now!”

The President narrowed his eyes. He knew the Vice President was gunning for the war because his investments on “our corporations” were on the line. At the same time, what he’d said was true. Then again, he still wasn’t convinced. “Who’s going to pay for their national healthcare? And what about those marshlands?” The latter were marshlands along the Tigris and the Euphrates rivers, home to the Marsh Arabs, which dried up when Saddam Hussein constructed dams to divert water away – ostensibly to punish the locals for attempting rebellion. These marshlands now needed massive funding to be rebuilt and reverse the ecological disaster.

The Vice President tried a final salvo. “Mr. President, oil stocks shot through the roof when we merely announced the invasion four years ago. Profits soared by 50% back then, and they haven’t looked back. Our contracts are going to be worth tens of billions of dollars. We call this off and we’re looking at a crash.” He swallowed, and then continued “A lot of money’s tied up there, Mr. President. You and I aren’t coming back to the White House next time, you know”.

The President sighed. The ecology of a distant country against the economy of his own. Lifting a million unknowns out of poverty against a few raking in billions. Was he the terrorist, or was he fighting them? So many unanswered questions one way, so many arguments the other way. But it would have to be done.

“We’re sending in those additional troops (5), Mr. Vice President. I don’t like it one bit, but it’s got to be done.

(4) The narrative is fictional, although it refers to the US-led invasion and subsequent conflict in Iraq.

(5) On January 11, the US Department of Defense announced which brigades will comprise the 21,500 additional troops that President George W. Bush plans to send to Iraq. The 2nd Brigade, 82nd Airborne Division, based at Fort Bragg, NC, will move into Iraq and assume a security mission there.

****

References

Paul Shrivastava and Ian I. Mitroff, The Ecological Roots of Terrorism, Bucknell University. Retr. January 29 2007. http://www.bucknell.edu/x4734.xml

Status Report on the Naxal Problem, South Asia Terrorism Portal, 2001. Retr, January 29 2007. http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/india/document/papers/06mar13_naxal%20problem%20.htm

Ramesh, Randeep, Inside India’s Hidden War, The Guardian: May 9 2006. Retr. January 29 2007. http://www.guardian.co.uk/india/story/0,,1770612,00.html

A spectre haunting India, The Economist: August 17 2006. Retr. January 29 2007. http://economist.com/world/asia/displaystory.cfm?story_id=7799247

Greg Palast, Secret US plans for Iraq’s oil, BBC News, March 17 2005. Retr. January 30 2007. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/4354269.stm

Steve Kretzmann and Jim Vallette, Plugging Iraq into Globalization, July 22 2003. Retr. January 30 2007. http://www.counterpunch.org/kretzmann07222003.html

Water returns to Iraqi marshlands, BBC News, August 24 2005. Retr. January 30 2007. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4177852.stm

Joseph E. Stiglitz and Linda Bilmes, Iraq War Will Cost More-than-$2-Trillion, Milken Institute Review, December 2006. Retr. January 30 2007. http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article15499.htm

Laura Heaton, Analysis: What new US troops will do in Iraq, Middle East Times, January 31 2007. Retr. January 31 2007. http://www.metimes.com/storyview.php?StoryID=20070131-052041-2134r

Ravi Tiwari, Mumbai slums in the grip of land mafia, NDTV News, March 29 2006. Retr. January 31 2007. http://www.ndtv.com/morenews/showmorestory.asp?slug=Mumbai%20slums%20in%20the%20grip%20of%20land%20mafia&id=86305&category=National#

Suketu Mehta, Maximum City: Bombay Lost and Found, Penguin India (2004)

[Ends]

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BusinessWeek on “The Trouble With India”

BusinessWeek’s latest issue tries to comprehend the conundrum that India is.

In a series of articles in addition to the main one “The Trouble With India”, BW’s reporters conclude what we already know – the country needs investment: in infrastructure and education (see the “Related Articles” box on the main article page). More than that, the common refrain through every article is that though the symptoms may be economic, the problem is political. The abysmal quality of Governance in the country could snatch the opportunity of meaningful progress that is tantalizingly within reach, for the first time in living memory.

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The Technology VC’s Dilemma – Network versus Expertise

Basab Pradhan on why tech entrepreneurs in India who target the US market have problems getting funding from US-based VCs:

“VCs like to keep the management of their investee companies as close as possible to where they are. Sequoia, I believe, doesn’t invest in companies that aren’t in or won’t move to the Bay Area. What this means is that entrepreneurs in India don’t have access to VCs in the US. They will typically have to go to VCs in India. However, out of these Indian VCs, only some will have the experience in developed markets that is necessary to evaluate an investment opportunity. And those few that do, because they just moved into India, will be ill placed to help their investee companies – no networks in India and too far away from the US to actively help in making connections there.”

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You know it’s an Asian Century when…

The Secretary-General of the United Nations is a Korean.

The Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency is an Egyptian.

The next head of the International Energy Agency will be Japanese.

The Director-General-elect of the World Health Organization is Chinese.

The Secretary-General of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development is Thai.

International Policy, Energy, Trade and Health. All headed by Asians. Asian Century indeed.

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Blogger Beta

RahulGaitonde.org now runs on Blogger Beta! The Blogger guys’ve done a neat job, from the looks of things. Most blogs which are published on Blogspot have already moved to Blogger Beta, but the service was only just extended to those of us who use Blogger to publish to our own websites via FTP.

I’m exploring all of the Beta’s new features, so expect some changes on this website soon! For a start, labels to individual posts!

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“Who is a stock? How is a bond? Wrong questions”

Gautam Chikermane argues for better financial literacy among India’s students. Thought-provoking, when you consider the implication this has for our next generation. Some snippets:

But the next generation in schools will not have any such false nets to fall on. It is for them that we need to make this investment in financial literacy — today. An investment in teachers, who first need to understand their own finances and then transmit this knowledge and confidence to deal with money to their students.

When they graduate with degrees in engineering, management or philosophy, join the workforce as entrepreneurs, professionals or civil servants, our children will be better able to understand and work with money. They will be more comfortable with equity risk, for instance, and generate more wealth to finance their retirements. They will possibly not fall into the credit trap that students in the West are so prone to — most of them graduate with huge debts.

It is basically an understanding of:
… Spending and debt as we increasingly take on debt to finance education, cars, houses; understanding credit as a financial tool, using mortgages and reverse mortgages….. ‘Situations’ — divorce, disabilities, job loss, inheritance… Transferring wealth to the next generation.

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Rajesh Jain – “Turn the VC model around”

Rajesh Jain, in the same interview, makes a most profound statement about Venture Capital in India. The second paragraph is true of “New Tech” around the world, especially the United States.

I believe we need a new approach to venture capital in India. There is a very limited legacy, so it’s not going to evolve the way the U.S. did or even perhaps the way China did. In India there are lots of gaps across multiple value chains. Sometimes a service fails to take off because some parts along the value chain are not appropriately digitized. What ought to happen is a large amount of investment across building out an ecosystem of companies. Instead of waiting for an entrepreneur to come up with a business plan, venture capitalists need to be much more proactive. They should say, “The capital is available, now let’s find a CEO for this business and back that person with funding. Let’s start multiple companies based on what we have seen in other countries, and what we think the opportunities are in India.”

This is a very different, inside-out approach, where you end up flipping the model around. That requires much more work. It will not work if the core venture capital team lives abroad and just comes to India once in a while. We need people on the ground who understand the realities of India today, who understand how the technology is evolving, and who can make bets on what the future is going to be.

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The Economist on China’s and India’s Tech Industry

[This part via Rajesh Jain]

The Economist :

“…although China and India are often lumped together as tomorrow’s technology titans, there are marked contrasts in their technological development. They have roughly the same population, but China spends 2.5 times as much on technology as India does. It is already the world’s largest mobile-phone market, and the second-largest market for PCs. Moreover, at the end of 2005, China had around 110m internet users, compared with 51m in India; and today China has 430m mobile-phone users, versus 120m in India. The two countries are adopting technology at different paces and in different ways.”

The next paragraph, though, has a few interesting points. Some of them are wrongly justified:

“Centralised economies can pour resources into projects and direct the development of entire industries, something that is much harder in India’s sprawling, bureaucratic democracy.”

The classic problem with centralized economies is that they are extremely slow to react to change! And I’m surprised the writer didn’t choose to examine how sustainiable this sort of planning is, especially given that the technology industry is constantly in a state of flux. The “direction of development” of the technology industry is, today, being decided in all sorts of places – the USA, Finland, India, Japan, Brazil, China, Korea – and there is simply no way that you can lead this industry by committee directives.

For mobile phones, China established a second state-owned operator to challenge the incumbent, while India’s operators remained tangled up for years in legal fights over a botched regulatory framework.

Ah. Very smart. Imagine another BSNL – wouldn’t that be cool! I wonder, though, if this won’t result in a cartel, which then isn’t too different from having a monopoly. India’s myriad private telecom service providers all driving prices and margine relentlessly down, seem a better bet than China’s state owned behemoths.

China has also tried to develop its own technical standards so that it can avoid paying royalties to foreign firms for using intellectual property.

In a world built on open standards, this is not very smart. Open standards, proprietary implementations are going to be the norm for a while.

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Where have I been?!

Over a month and just one measly post. Where has Rahul been? This is the second time I’ve been offline for a month – the last time it was the IBM conference in New York. This time, my life’s been turned topsy-turvy good and proper! As most of you know by now, I have resigned from IBM to pursue my MBA at the Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode. Yes, thank you for the kind words.

They aren’t kidding when they say the IIMs are some of the toughest B-schools in the world. I won’t even begin to describe life here – read “ Snapshots from Hell” by Peter Robinson for a peek. But consider this: I haven’t got any time to read beyond the preface of the wonderful Hitchiker’s Guide to the Galaxy omnibus I’ve managed to lay my hands on, leave aside read my long Google Reader feed list, and definitely leave aside blogging. Now that some sanity has returned to my life, I shall make a valiant attempt to return to Technology and Strategy.

By the way, this is a breathtakingly beautiful place. Though I’m not sure if it’s quite the right place to study serious business!

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Taking DRM too far?

Fred Wilson talks about taking DRM too far:

What I object to is purchasing content and then being restricted as to where I can play it. We have at least 20 devices that I can play music on in my home, between computers, iPods, music servers, phones, PDAs, etc. And that number is going up, not down.

Apparently ( according to this screenshot), you can only play music from the iTunes music store on five authorised compters. To play on any more, you have to first de-authorise an existing one.

The problem is that “Five” is an arbitrary number. To say that the iTunes guys arrived at this number only after doing a fair bit of statistical research (the typical number of computers a user has is 5), is very poor logic. Apple’s iTunes freed users from having to continue to purchase CDs and DVDs (which led to huge margins for recording companies), but it seems to have fallen victim to the same “control freak” mentality that was the RIAA’s undoing.a