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Air travellers – thought you’d seen it all?

Paul Kedrosky, a VC, has this funny incident to share:

Yesterday the space shuttle Atlantis crossed over San Diego on its way to landing at Edwards Air Force Base. I was on the ground in San Diego ready to board a plane to San Francisco, which was delayed. The reason? The space shuttle passing through our air space. I was, in other words, caught in space traffic.

:) Sign of things to come?

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Financial valuation – the next generation

Clayton Christensen (author of the legendary “The Innovator’s Dilemma”) on a method of financial projection he’s associated with :

… discounted cash flow or net present value is the most commonly used method to determine what an innovation is worth today. But the mathematics have an implicit assumption within them that if we don’t do this innovation, the way things are today will maintain themselves in the future. That’s not true. The company’s current financial condition will not persist. By comparing the innovation against the do-nothing scenario, you’re biased.

… there’s a method that’s the brainchild of Rita McGrath at Columbia and Ian Macmillan at Wharton called “discovery-driven planning.” It’s a much better way to assess the value of projects. Most companies, when they look at the financial projections [of a potential innovation project], if they look good, they do it. If they don’t, they don’t.

But the desirability of attractive numbers has never been an issue. Why shine the spotlight on the numbers? Rather, a better way to do it is: We all know how good the numbers need to look for this to be attractive. But what assumptions have to prove true in order for those numbers to materialize out of this innovation? So you focus the spotlight on what assumptions have to prove true, and you launch a project to test those assumptions. It’s a much better way.

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Where Google plays second fiddle

Time Magazine ponders “Can Google Get Any Bigger“? Looks like it can:

However, for all of its success, Google’s online dominance has been limited to search. In web-based e-mail, for example, Google’s service, Gmail, is in a distant fifth place to leader Yahoo! Mail, which is over 12 times the size of Gmail in terms of visits. Google has barely made a peep in social networking; MySpace, the #1 social networking site, is over 300 times the size of Google’s Orkut service. Even mainstream information such as Google Finance is an order of magnitude smaller in visits than the industry leader in financial information Yahoo! Finance.

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Avnish Bajaj on why the Web 2.0 paradigm won’t work in India

Avnish Bajaj of Matrix Partners on why he thinks the “Web 2.0” paradigm won’t work in India:

“People talk about the Internet being convenient, but it is not so in India. You need to go to a cyber café or you have to dial up a telephone line or use a slow broadband connection. Whereas in the US, 150 million households have broadband access all around the clock, sitting at home. When you have such a situation you can do social networking, but where is that happening in India? Do you think a person will go to a cyber café or any public environment to discuss everything about their life?”

“…there is a cultural barrier, as not many individuals will express themselves as in Myspace.com. Also, there are infrastructural barriers. Fundamentally it is not about social networking but about community building. In India one needs to first create a product according to people’s needs and subsequently a community will form around it.”

While I’m glad Bajaj has debunked the Web 2.0 craze, I’m not so sure about the cultural part. While MySpace is a little extreme, Orkut is very popular among young adults (between 15 and 22) in urban India (and no, “urban” now includes Tier-2 and 3 cities from the Hindi heartland too). 75% of India’s Internet users surf from a public location (cyber cafes). I don’t see a reason why either culture or lack of a personal, home computer ought to dissuade users from socializing on the Internet.

After all, it’s happening. Right before us. See what your kid brother/sister/nephew/niece means when he/she wants to “check mail”. They mean they want to check their scrapbook!

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Meg Whitman’s got her eBay strategy right

In an interview to BusinessWeek, Meg Whitman talks about “taking eBay off eBay”:

Whitman and her managers also described efforts to make the site’s auction feature available on social network pages, blogs, as well as Web sites and stores outside of eBay via widgets—those increasingly popular small programs that enable users to easily share content and incorporate it into their own Web sites.

“But we are also not averse to taking eBay off eBay, whether that is to some of the social networking sites or exporting it to your Web site with eBay To Go [a widget that enables users to embed eBay auctions into their own Web sites and blogs].”

eBay’s revenue model is not tied to its website at all, but to the very core of its business – transactions. This is a far more durable model than most online services today, where the core business generates little or no money, and the only revenue comes from advertising on the website. In other words, the revenue side of the firm has no relation to the business side.

In eBay’s case, though, it makes perfect sense to create as many opportunities to transact as is possible, and that calls for maximum exposure via as many channels as are available today. In that sense, Meg’s got her strategy bang on target.

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McKinsey on Software as a Service

Excerpts from a rather insightful article in the latest McKinsey Quarterly, “Delivering software as a service“:

On how traditional software companies will have to change to tackle the challenge on SaaS:

To be successful, vendors will have to understand the rules of the new game, especially how customer service and sales models differ, and adjust accordingly. They’ll need to grasp why software is moving to this model and how the new economics affect customers, intermediaries, and providers—not only software developers, but also IT and business process outsourcing providers. They will have to make changes in their own organizations by ramping up their ability to deliver software from large data centers and by developing new ways to sell to and service their customers. The sooner software companies embrace the change, the better access they’ll have to top talent and new markets and the better off they are likely to be in the long term.

It’s the data center bit that caught my attention – this is one fundamental resource that any next-generation software firm will need to deliver its applications, regardless of the firm’s size. In the short term, access to large, reliable storage and bandwidth will be a source of competitive advantage. In the intermediate term, though, I see hosted bandwidth and managed storage becoming a healthy business in itself, so any firm, regardless of size, will be able to get the infrastructure it needs.

On the four “waves” of traditional software that will migrate to being served “hosted” rather than “deployed”:

The first wave: “… human-resources applications such as CRM and payroll and for collaboration tools that aren’t mission critical, involve relatively low data security and privacy concerns, have a distributed user base, and require little integration with on-premise applications and little customization”

The second wave: “… transactions between buyers and suppliers, including procurement, logistics, and supply chain management.”

The third wave: “… applications (that are) more critical to business, such as hosted environments for software development”

Finally, the fourth wave: “… new classes of applications which are actually better suited for online delivery and seamlessly integrate with on-premise applications… (such as) spam- or virus-protection applications, which are superior to e-mail filters because they stop junk e-mail or harmful viruses before they enter a company’s fire wall.”

I’m surprised the authors chose to ignore data security and privacy concerns. In my opinion, this is the single biggest issue that could hinder widespread adoption of the SaaS paradigm. Google’s repeatedly come under flak for its ability to peek into users’ mailboxes. If there’s such a ruckus over personal email, it’s going to be a long long time before corporate data will be moved online.
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The nonsensification of Indian news channels

Gordon D’Souza echoes a growing frustration with the electronic news media in India:

The arrival of the private sector to broadcasting promised a lot but today I stay away from any Indian news channel. The reasons are pretty obvious. Practically everything is ‘Breaking News’. I can barely see the broadcasts due to a stock market ticker, a weather ticker, the odd cricket score ticker, the ad marquee, the ‘Breaking News’ marquee, the logo, etc. As each and every news channel jostles for content it doesnt push up the standards but hits a new low every time. And every time they try to shock my sensibilities by broadcasting shocking content I am indifferent, because I have been repeatedly shocked and my brain has adjusted to the madness of some obscure madman.

It’s a race for towards the bottom, and it’s a race where everyone loses. The market is wide open for a sensible news channel that not only digs up issues that matter, but has the courage, character and perseverance to follow them relentlessly.

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Social networking – the future is mobile

Rajesh Jain says exactly what I’ve been predicting over the last several months:

My belief continues to be that in India social networking will need to take a mobile-centric rather than a PC-centric approach. So, from that perspective, the space still remains wide open.

A mobile Orkut would explode usage in India – the mobile phone is the perfect tool for an application service like a social network. It fits snugly into the lifestyle of urban Indian youth. And it wouldn’t take much – Opera Mini has shown how a sophisticated application like a web browser can be built in Java under 100KB.

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A decade in Technology…

… is a long time, as Cringely points out in his 10th anniversary column this week. A snapshot of how things were ten years ago:

The big names back in 1997 were Microsoft, Intel, AOL, Compaq, and Netscape, only two of which survive today as independent enterprises. The PC was everything. Apple back then was the Apple of Gil Amelio, not Steve Jobs, and was hardly even a contender. Google was a year from being founded. Yahoo was around, but then so was Excite and AltaVista. It was the beginning of the Internet bubble, a time of promise and Super Bowl commercials, when crazy business ideas were funded overnight and people sometimes got jobs because they had places to live in Silicon Valley, not because they had particular talent.