Microsoft already has lost its position as leader in personal technology. The end actually came in about 2000. Once Windows became “good enough” and did not crash so much, they have had a hard time finding something to improve.
This isn’t altogether true in an absolute sense, but compare the leap from Windows 2000 to Windows 7 with where Apple has taken Mac OS X in the same time (just look at Lion). This is where Apple’s deep integration with hardware makes really *useful* innovation possible.
Footnote: see where Microsoft has taken Office in this same period, where it hasn’t needed to depend on hardware integration.